2025 Southern California Demographic Workshop Revisits the ‘Intergenerational Contract’
More than 350 people attended the 2025 Southern California Demographic Workshop, “Revisiting the Intergenerational Contract,” on Oct. 1 to discuss the latest demographic trends for the region and explore how demographic and economic changes are influencing the traditional “intergenerational contract”—how groups in society rely on one another across generations and between lifecycle stages. The 36th annual event was hosted by SCAG and the USC Price School of Public Policy.
Highlights of the 2025 Southern California Demographic Workshop included the presentation and publication of a new report, “Highs, Lows, and Shocks: Key Housing and Economic Trends in Southern California,” by SCAG and USC demographers to provide insight into American Community Survey data released earlier in September by the U.S. Census Bureau. Drawing on nearly two decades of annual ACS data, the report highlights how the SCAG region and its six counties compare with state and national trends across key indicators such as housing affordability, workforce patterns, and economic resilience. To learn more and download the complete report, visit SCAG News.
The 2025 Southern California Demographic Workshop also included three panels and a keynote address.
The first panel of the day, the “Demographic Check-Up,” took a close look at the “Highs, Lows, and Shocks: Key Housing and Economic Trends in Southern California” report for trends in population, fertility, housing, and employment in Southern California over the past year. The panel raised the possibility that environmental and market changes could reverse recent trends in migration into and out of California. According to Walter Schwarm, Ph.D., chief demographer of the California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit, lower foreign in-migration could eventually result in lower domestic out-migration for the state.
The “Lifecycle Sharing: A Timeless Social Contract” panel examined how the intergenerational contract, or how groups in society rely on one another across generations and between life stages, is changing in the United States. While acknowledging that investment in children is a continuing problem in policy and the economy, the panel suggested that the intergenerational contract is mostly intact in the United States. The panel revealed specific details about how household formation, housing costs, and real wages change as the costs of individual healthcare, housework, and consumption costs change.
The “Role of Immigration in Southern California’s Workforce” panel examined how immigration policy has influenced the economy since the Immigration Reform and Control Act in 1986 and what to expect in the future given recent changes in federal immigration policy. According to the panel, with declining fertility rates, the United States will have to rely on immigration to drive economic growth: “We have to; we don’t have a choice,” said panelist Michael Bracken, managing director of DMG Economics. According to panelist Manuel Pastor, Ph.D., director of the Equity Research Institute at the University of Southern California, in recent years, immigrants are becoming more likely to choose to settle in Florida and Texas, where they can afford a home, than in California—just one of the trends making it difficult to replace population moving out of the state.
The keynote address, by Dowell Myers, Ph.D., professor and director of the Population Dynamics Research Group at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, started by addressing how the state has totally reversed its demographic outlook—away from the “runaway growth” feared in the early 1990s. Despite stagnant population growth, increasing out-migration, and an older population, the public assumes that the state is still growing too quickly. Despite that persistent demographic misperception, Prof. Myers sees support for political issues that will make it easier for people to stay in California.
Resources shared at the event will be available at the event website in the coming days:
- The “Highs, Lows, and Shocks: Key Housing and Economic Trends in Southern California” report.
- Event photos (coming soon on the SCAG website).
- Videos (coming soon on YouTube).
SCAG looks forward to continuing the conversation at the upcoming 2026 Regional Conference and General Assembly on May 7-8, 2026, in Palm Desert.