33rd Annual Demographic Workshop

We’re already seeing how life – and work – will change in post-pandemic Southern California as a shift toward working from home and a renewed emphasis on health and safety impact everything from corporate culture to the homes we live in, experts said Tuesday.

Appearing at Day 2 of the 32^nd Annual Demographic Workshop, sponsored by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) and the University of Southern California, some of the region’s top researchers and business minds said it’s too soon to know how all of the COVID-related variables will play out in the months and years ahead, but that a number of sustainable trends are already emerging.

“What an exciting time it is to be a housing producer. All of the rules are changing, and it’s forcing us to be more creative than ever,” said Randall Lewis, Executive Vice President of Lewis Management Corp.

This year’s workshop, held virtually, was built around the theme, “The Post-Pandemic City.” During the first session, held last week, demographers discussed how low birth rates, uncertainty over immigration and long-term impacts from COVID-19 will result in a year-over-year population decline in Southern California for the first time ever. Tuesday’s follow-up session took a closer look at how the pandemic could fundamentally change how we live, and do business, moving forward.

The shift toward working from home was a central theme, with most experts agreeing that the traditional work model is undergoing a re-examination that could have profound impacts for decades to come.

Lewis, whose company develops residential communities and commercial properties in California and Nevada, identified working from home as one of several major shifts he sees arising from the pandemic. The function of housing has expanded, he said, as builders now are designing apartments and houses with offices and the infrastructure to accommodate a work-from-home model. It also impacts where people live, inspiring many to move away from traditional business centers and toward the suburbs, where they might be able to get more for their dollar and enjoy a more preferred quality of life.

All of this is having an impact on corporate workplace strategies – and the traditional office model – in ways that are still evolving, the experts said.

Amber Schiada, Senior Director of Research for JLL Strategic Consulting Group, said that while 51% of companies surveyed by JLL plan to expand work-from-home policies – mostly through a hybrid model – employers and employees are concerned about “diminished culture” resulting from a lack of in-person interaction. Although total office space demand is expected to decline slightly, as many as 50% of tenants are planning permanent space redesigns, including more collaboration space to increase productivity and innovation.

“The physical office serves a profound purpose in meeting personal and business needs,” Schiada said.

Clint Lorimore, President of SCAG and an Eastvale City Councilmember, said the demographic and lifestyle shifts highlighted during the workshop underscore the competitive advantages Southern California has in a post-pandemic world.

“We are a resilient region, with innovative thinkers, and are well positioned to take on the unknowns that are in front of us,” Lorimore said.

One of those unknowns is the impact all of this will have on commuting and traffic patterns. SCAG, the nation’s largest metropolitan planning organization, soon will embark on its 2024 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy – a task that Kome Ajise, SCAG’s Executive Director, has described as a monumental one.  

“With all that we’ve been through and all that we’ve learned in the past fifteen months would suggest we have to rethink a lot of the things we do in order to best meet the needs of the more than 19 million people who call Southern California home,” Ajise said.

Read the full press release here: SCAG Host Day Two of 32nd Annual Demographic Workshop

Low birth rates, uncertainty over immigration and long-term impacts from COVID-19 will result in a year-over-year population decline in Southern California for the first time ever, researchers said Tuesday in the first of a two-part demographic conference sponsored by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) and the University of Southern California.

The 32^nd Annual Demographic Workshop, held virtually this year, is built around the theme, “The Post-Pandemic City,” and takes a close look at several intersecting developments that could significantly change life in the six-county SCAG region. These include the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery, heightened awareness of racial equity and inclusion, and results of the 2020 Census. The latter already will result in California losing a Congressional seat.

Part 2 of the workshop will be held next Tuesday (June 15).

For decades, Southern California has ranked among the most vibrant population centers in the United States, climbing above 19 million. However, the rate of growth has slowed throughout the 2010s as declining fertility rates, the housing crisis and other factors have resulted in a gradually aging – and less mobile – population base.

According to projections released Tuesday, the fastest-growing segment of the population will be mature retirees, ages 75-84, followed by young retirees (65-74) and seniors (85 and older). Meanwhile, there will actually be a decline in college-age young adults and preschool-age children. Also, the ratio of working-age adults to retirement-age adults – which once stood at 6 to 1 – has fallen below 4 to 1.

Compounding all of this is the pandemic, which led to an increase in mortality rates, a further decrease in birth rates and virtually halted foreign immigration into California. As a result, 2020 saw the first year-over-year drop in overall population.

“We’re facing a lot of unknowns as we emerge from the pandemic. However, with uncertainty, there is opportunity in front of us. We need to position ourselves to plan for the future,” said Clint Lorimore, President of SCAG and an Eastvale City Councilmember. “It’s a great privilege for SCAG to be able to bring together the best minds across the region and the state so that we can help cities meet their needs and work toward a better future for their people.”

Kome Ajise, SCAG’s Executive Director, described the task ahead as “a monumental one” for SCAG and its member agencies.  

“Fundamentally, our focus is on the people of Southern California – not just how many there will be, but what their needs are, where and how will they live, and how they will form the region’s economy,” Ajise said. “With the new Census indicating that slower growth may be in the region’s future, it’s an opportunity to not just grow, but to grow better.”

Part 2 of the workshop, from 1:30-4:45 p.m. next Tuesday, will feature discussions on the impact of the pandemic on how cities function, housing needs, transportation and workforce.

To view, please register for free here.

Read the full press release: SCAG Host Day One of 32nd Annual Demographic Workshop